🧠 SITUATIONAL AWARENESS PORTFOLIO
Based on Leopold Aschenbrenner's "The Decade Ahead" (June 2024)
"AGI by 2027 → Trillion-dollar clusters by 2030 → Massive infrastructure buildout"
Core (60%)
Infrastructure (25%)
Strategic (15%)
Tier 1
Core Positions — Picks & Shovels
60%
NVDA
NVIDIA — GPU Monopoly
Every training run, every inference cluster. The essay's core bet.
$205.19
20%
TSM
TSMC — Only Manufacturer of Cutting-Edge Chips
No TSMC = no AI. Geopolitical risk already priced in.
$423.93
15%
MSFT
Microsoft — Largest AI Deployer
OpenAI partnership + Azure AI. Revenue already $100B+ run rate.
$390.74
10%
GOOGL
Alphabet — Gemini + TPU + Cloud
Dual play: AI researcher + infrastructure provider.
$359.68
10%
AVGO
Broadcom — Custom AI Chips + Networking
Memory networking backbone for AI clusters.
$382.07
5%
Tier 2
Infrastructure Buildout — Physical Layer
25%
EQIX
Equinix — Largest Data Center REIT
Direct beneficiary of $1T+ cluster buildout.
$1,055.85
8%
CEG
Constellation Energy — Nuclear Power Leader
Microsoft/Google already signing nuclear PPAs.
$253.76
7%
VRT
Vertiv — Data Center Cooling
Every GPU cluster needs cooling. Non-negotiable infrastructure.
$302.87
5%
ANET
Arista Networks — AI Networking
Connecting millions of GPUs requires Arista switches.
$163.24
5%
Tier 3
Strategic Bets — Higher Risk, Higher Upside
15%
META
Meta — Open-Source AI (Llama)
If Llama wins, Meta becomes the Android of AI.
$566.98
5%
AMD
AMD — #2 GPU Maker
If NVDA stumbles or customers want alternatives.
$511.57
4%
CCJ
Cameco — Uranium Mining
Nuclear renaissance for AI power. Uranium supply bottleneck.
$100.96
3%
VST
Vistra — Nuclear + Gas Power
Data centers need 24/7 baseload power.
$148.02
3%
📅 Investment Timeline
01
Accumulation Phase
Now → Dec 2026 • 40% of capital
Build core Tier 1 positions via DCA. Pre-AGI window. Key catalysts: NVDA earnings, MSFT/GOOGL AI revenue reports.
02
Infrastructure Play
Jan 2027 → Dec 2027 • 30% of capital
Add Tier 2 positions as AI capex accelerates to $1T+/year. Data center and power stocks surge. Key catalysts: power contracts, nuclear permits.
03
Ride the Wave
2028 → 2030 • 30% of capital
Hold core, trim winners, add Tier 3 strategic bets. Intelligence explosion phase. AI companies generating massive revenue.
04
Exit Strategy
2030+ • Systematic profit-taking
Begin taking profits as the cycle matures. Thesis either proved correct (massive gains) or the world has changed fundamentally.
⚠️ Key Risks
AI Winter — Progress stalls or slows significantly
Geopolitical — TSMC/Taiwan risk, US-China chip restrictions
Valuation — NVDA at $5T may already price in much of the thesis
Regulation — Government intervention could cap AI development speed
Competition — Custom chips (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium) could erode NVDA's moat
⚠️ Not financial advice. Based on one person's essay about AI trajectory.
Do your own research. Past performance does not guarantee future results.